Reader The last issue of MindPrep Reflections explored the concept of wicked world dragons and gave some examples of these dragons over the past 200 years. I ended that issue with a promise to look at the need to learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future when considering the dragons in your world. Why? Learning from the past builds hindsight (wisdom from the past). Dealing with the present builds insight (clarity about the present). Intercepting the future requires...
6 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, I mentioned the dragon metaphor in the last issue of MindPrep. Why? Because they thrive in the wicked world in which we live and operate our businesses. This world is not just filled with puzzles, but also with complex challenges (good and bad) that morph as we try to resolve them. These challenges defy simple solutions. They blur the line between cause and effect and resist conventional planning. It’s a world where supply chains crumble, customer habits shift, and technology moves...
13 days ago • 3 min read
Reader The last issue of MindPrep ended with three realities: Linear thinking is obsolete. None of these frameworks support the notion that you can define a problem clearly, solve it once, and be done. Cause - effect relationships are scrambled. Strategy must be adaptive, not predictive. Wicked worlds, VUCA, and BANI all warn us to stop trying to control the uncontrollable. We must scan for signals, place bets, learn, and revise often. Emotions and cognition are inseparable. BANI highlights...
20 days ago • 3 min read
Reader , This is long (about a thousand words) so get a cup of coffee or a glass of wine. Part 1 of 2 Many of you know that I’ve been writing about wicked worlds for a while and that my “summer project” is to write a follow-on to the 2006 book The Prepared Mind of a Leader. But while researching and thinking about wicked worlds I kept coming across two other acronyms, VUCA and BANI. Since all three might apply to my quest to explain and find tools for today’s mess I did a bit of...
27 days ago • 4 min read
Reader, I’ve been investigating and writing about a special level of complexity – wickedness – for about a year. As I’ve said before, wickedness, in this context, doesn’t imply evil—it means unpredictability, interconnectedness, and the absence of clear cause-and-effect relationships. In a wicked world: The “rules of the game” are ambiguous, temporary, or contested. (Will today’s best practices regarding AI work next year?) Feedback loops are broken or delayed. (What will shipping fees be...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Reader, In 2006, Jeanie Egmon and I wrote The Prepared Mind of a Leader to help leaders develop thinking skills needed to thrive in a world of creative destruction. Back then, we described the challenge of “creative destruction” and a future shaped by unpredictable change. Now that future is here—and it's even more unpredictable than we imagined. Your experience might help—or it might hold you back. The End of Predictability Kind environments—where experience and expertise lead to mastery—are...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Reader, The World Economic Forum released a list of the Top 10 Skills for 2025. 1. Analytical thinking and innovation 2. Active learning and learning strategies 3. Complex problem-solving 4. Critical thinking and analysis 5. Creativity, originality, and initiative 6. Leadership and social influence 7. Technology use, monitoring, and control 8. Technology design and programming 9. Resilience, stress tolerance, and flexibility 10. Reasoning, problem-solving, and ideation Since this list...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Reader, When you consider the mix of Trump, China, AI, the economy, the “next” pandemic, climate change, and generational shifts, the future seems to be up for grabs. And yet, we are marching into it day-by-day. Here are a few things to ponder. 1. The Future is not a blank sheet of paper. You have knowledge and experience, so start with a hypothesis (or better, hypotheses) and look for the clues that might signify you are right or wrong. 2. Look for disconfirming data. We love to be right,...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Reader, "History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes." – Mark Twain Hindsight can be described as the ability to understand and draw lessons from events after they have happened. It’s not about remembering the facts – it’s all about finding the lessons. While hindsight doesn’t change the past, it can shape better decisions in the future by converting experience into wisdom. Failure to Use Hindsight – Some Famous Examples Kodak Ignoring the Shift to Digital in the early 2000s. They might have...
2 months ago • 2 min read
Reader, We live in a wicked world - a term borrowed from systems theory and complexity science to describe environments that are nonlinear, interconnected, fast-changing, and filled with uncertainty. Wicked challenges rarely have clear boundaries or definitive solutions and decisions made in one part of a system can ripple unpredictably through others. Let’s consider the U.S.–China tariff war of 2018–2020 as a case study to explore the characteristics of a wicked system. The earlier tariff...
2 months ago • 2 min read
