Reader, Have you ever seen decisions that seemed like a great idea at the time—only to see them backfire later? For example, the widespread use of antibiotics saved millions of lives, but overuse led to antibiotic-resistant bacteria, making some infections harder to treat. Or maybe you held on to your bestselling product for too long and you became irrelevant (Kodak). These are examples of unintended consequences—the hidden, second- and third-order effects of decisions that only become...
1 day ago • 3 min read
Reader, Foresight and the lack of it has been on my mind. Here's a short piece about "news" that has almost become background noise. Leaders should be paying more attention. Facts According to the CDC, as of February 21, 2025, the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has led to the culling of approximately 162.8 million poultry in the United States. This extensive loss has significantly disrupted the egg industry, resulting in soaring prices and supply shortages. In January 2025 alone, over...
8 days ago • 1 min read
Reader, Did Sears Roebuck intercept the future of retailing? Did Tesla intercept the future of the automobile? Who is in the process of intercepting the future of “intelligence?’ For too many organizations the question of “Can we intercept the future of our industry?” is a work in progress. This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “Where is the future...
15 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “What’s going on.” This issue continues the examination of the Driving Questions. Here’s the proverbial roadmap. MindPrep Education Knowledge you should possess The basic structure of a business model Models that can be used to organize the analysis of the future clues (e.g., PESTLE analysis). Hypotheses...
22 days ago • 1 min read
Reader MindPrep 288 – Scan and Confront Reality In the last issue of MindPrep I introduced “5 Premises, 5 Questions, and 5 Actions” that I consider to be the basis of building and using strategic foresight. This issue is an introduction to the proposed action of scanning and confronting reality. My intention is to write a follow-on to the 2006 book, The Prepared Mind of a Leader, for leaders and emerging leaders who want to get themselves and their organization to the future and succeed. I’m...
29 days ago • 2 min read
Reader I’m in the process of interviewing people about the challenges of building foresight and being prepared for the future. The intent is to write a follow-on to our book The Prepared Mind of a Leader. So far, I’ve interviewed a former city manager, a hospital president, the leader of a business incubator, a supply chain expert, the leader facilitator of a northern Colorado industry group, and others. Let me know if you’d like to be included. We can have a phone conversation, a Zoom...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Reader Back in December 2023 I published MindPrep 233 and made the “shocking” statement that people and organizations are trying to bend your mind to their way of thinking. You can find that issue HERE if you want to refresh your memory. Thirteen months later the political and social media pressures have only made this worse, so here are some questions to ask yourself to keep controversial topics straight in YOUR mind. These are not the only questions, but they may be a good starting point....
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Reader I’m old enough to remember the dot-com bubble of 1999 – 2000 and the excitement of counting webpage-views (aka, “eyeballs”) while ignoring profitability. And now I’m living in the era of AI, cryptocurrency, and electric vehicles. Is this time different? DALL-E Dot-Com Bubble (late 1990s): The internet was a groundbreaking technology that promised to revolutionize communication, commerce, and society. Valuations skyrocketed as investors raced to get a piece of the "internet gold rush."...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Reader Every decision you make today is a bet about the future. Sometimes the future is near and sometimes the future is far. Sometimes our decisions produce that results we want; and sometimes they don’t. It’s always “the present” when you decide, but every decision plays out in the future. Charlotte If you want to make better decisions in the “here and now” you should do two things: 1. (Re)confirm your assumptions underlying the decision. 2. Think about the unintended consequences of the...
2 months ago • 1 min read