Reader, When you consider the mix of Trump, China, AI, the economy, the “next” pandemic, climate change, and generational shifts, the future seems to be up for grabs. And yet, we are marching into it day-by-day. Here are a few things to ponder. 1. The Future is not a blank sheet of paper. You have knowledge and experience, so start with a hypothesis (or better, hypotheses) and look for the clues that might signify you are right or wrong. 2. Look for disconfirming data. We love to be right,...
6 days ago • 1 min read
Reader, "History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes." – Mark Twain Hindsight can be described as the ability to understand and draw lessons from events after they have happened. It’s not about remembering the facts – it’s all about finding the lessons. While hindsight doesn’t change the past, it can shape better decisions in the future by converting experience into wisdom. Failure to Use Hindsight – Some Famous Examples Kodak Ignoring the Shift to Digital in the early 2000s. They might have...
12 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, We live in a wicked world - a term borrowed from systems theory and complexity science to describe environments that are nonlinear, interconnected, fast-changing, and filled with uncertainty. Wicked challenges rarely have clear boundaries or definitive solutions and decisions made in one part of a system can ripple unpredictably through others. Let’s consider the U.S.–China tariff war of 2018–2020 as a case study to explore the characteristics of a wicked system. The earlier tariff...
19 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, For decades, leaders could rely on experience. The rules were clear. Patterns repeated. Feedback came quickly. If you put in time and paid attention to best practices, you got better. These were kind systems—environments where learning paid off and mastery was learnable and achievable. Need a hotshot executive? Pirate one from GE. She can run any business! But kind systems are vanishing. And in their place? Wicked systems—where the rules shift constantly, feedback is delayed or...
26 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, One of the problems of developing a mental model of the future is that our expertise gets in the way. Consider the story of Arthur C. Clarke, one of the most respected authors of science fiction who started writing stories about the future in the 1950s. Let’s take a look at one of his earliest books, The Sands of Mars, which was published in 1951. The story was about a reporter’s trip to the “Red Planet.” Clarke’s description of the atomic engines that powered the spacecraft made...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Reader, I used to think that Elon Musk was a bit crazy, but very smart. Now I’m sure about the crazy stuff and not so sure about him being smart. Maybe his ketamine use is stirring the mix. Smart people pay attention to consequences The late Peter Drucker was a great business thinker and a hero to many of us because he analyzed the picture of big decisions across time. His comments about the need to consider the “futurity” of your decisions triggered reflection to look at consequences, both...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Reader, You want certainty but you must be ready to deal with its opposite, uncertainty. To navigate uncertainty with confidence, cultivate enduring thinking skills that include observing, imagining, reasoning, reflecting, challenging, deciding, learning, and enabling. These skills form the foundation of a prepared mind and are only strengthened through deliberate practice. As you strengthen these skills you need to combine and align them with ways to sharpen your thinking. Here are five...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Reader, Have you ever seen decisions that seemed like a great idea at the time—only to see them backfire later? For example, the widespread use of antibiotics saved millions of lives, but overuse led to antibiotic-resistant bacteria, making some infections harder to treat. Or maybe you held on to your bestselling product for too long and you became irrelevant (Kodak). These are examples of unintended consequences—the hidden, second- and third-order effects of decisions that only become...
about 2 months ago • 3 min read
Reader, Foresight and the lack of it has been on my mind. Here's a short piece about "news" that has almost become background noise. Leaders should be paying more attention. Facts According to the CDC, as of February 21, 2025, the ongoing H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has led to the culling of approximately 162.8 million poultry in the United States. This extensive loss has significantly disrupted the egg industry, resulting in soaring prices and supply shortages. In January 2025 alone, over...
2 months ago • 1 min read
Reader, Did Sears Roebuck intercept the future of retailing? Did Tesla intercept the future of the automobile? Who is in the process of intercepting the future of “intelligence?’ For too many organizations the question of “Can we intercept the future of our industry?” is a work in progress. This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “Where is the future...
2 months ago • 2 min read
