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The last issue of MindPrep ended with three realities:

Linear thinking is obsolete. None of these frameworks support the notion that you can define a problem clearly, solve it once, and be done. Cause - effect relationships are scrambled.

Strategy must be adaptive, not predictive. Wicked worlds, VUCA, and BANI all warn us to stop trying to control the uncontrollable. We must scan for signals, place bets, learn, and revise often.

Emotions and cognition are inseparable.​
BANI highlights that leaders must now manage psychological overload - not just ambiguity. It’s not just about solving problems; it’s about holding your team together. Emotional Intelligence is a must-have.

If you want to read the last issue you can get it HERE.

And so …..

The proverbial bottom line is that our world is unstable, ambiguous, and increasingly difficult to navigate. Welcome to the wicked world. (I’ve decided to put all three terms described in MindPrep 303 under the overarching umbrella of “wicked.”)

In this world, the rules change without notice, yesterday’s expertise can become today’s liability, and the path forward is anything but clear.

Furthermore, I’ve decided to call the disruptive forces that roam this landscape dragons. Not because they are mythical, but because they are formidable. Some dragons are old enemies - climate risks, economic upheaval, cultural division. Others are newly hatched - AI anomalies, social unrest, and black swan events. All are real. All are dangerous.

So, what can you do?

Here are a handful of tools and techniques you might want to try.

Environmental Scanning and Signal Detection: Spot emerging challenges and avoid being blindsided. There WILL be another pandemic. Are you watching for clues?

• Engage in regular PESTLE Analysis to map external environmental changes. (PESTLE = Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental)
• Keep a “That’s Interesting Journal” to capture anomalies and contradictions.

Mental Model Audit: Break out of outdated thinking habits and see problems more clearly. Does Porter’s Five Forces model need to be modified? What industry describes Amazon?

• Regularly audit your assumptions. Identify and challenge the assumptions that underpin your plans.
• Conduct a “What if we’re wrong?” session to promote diverse viewpoints.

Foresight-Based Planning: Prepare - not predict - for multiple potential futures. What happens when an AI bot “discovers” the gene editing capabilities of CRISPR-Cas9? A 2030 Frankenstein monster?

• Run regular scenario planning sessions using probable, plausible, and possible futures.
• Consider the ripple effects of big decisions and identify necessary actions.

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Make smart choices when no clear answer exists. How are we going with the ongoing drought in the western states?

• Use a Decision Quality Checklist: Assess Frames, Choices, Knowledge, Process, and Capability. (I have a job aid for this. Let me know if you’d like a copy.)
• Use premortems (assume future failure and work backwards) with every strategic decision.

Reflective Learning: Act quickly, adapt constantly, and learn fast. Tariffs are a 2025 reality. How quickly can you realign your global supply chain?

• Institute After-Action Reviews (AARs) and learning journals to extract lessons from each decision.
• Try safe-to-fail experiments rather than fail-safe plans.

Want to make this personal? Consider the above tools and techniques and consider the impact that AI may or will have on your job. AI is making the world of work very wicked indeed.

A Prepared Mind

Adapt the eight enduring skills we discussed in our 2006 book The Prepared Mind of a Leader. Fit them into your thinking about today’s wicked world.

• Observe: Regularly scan for anomalies, trends, and outliers.
• Imagine: Create multiple future scenarios and explore “what ifs.”
• Reason: Build system-wide frameworks to better understand complex issues.
• Reflect: Learn from both successes and failures in real time.
• Challenge: Question all assumptions - your own and others’.
• Decide: Make timely, reasonable decisions even with incomplete information.
• Learn: Treat mistakes as opportunities to learn and adapt.
• Enable: Develop others’ ability to act wisely in uncertain situations.

Next Issue

I’m going to dig a bit into the “dragon” term and explain how it applies to today’s challenges. I’ve always been fascinated with old maps and the “Here be Dragons” warning on the edge of the maps. Let’s see if we can understand and tame these brutes in today’s wicked world.

An “Ask”

During the pandemic I facilitated some webinars for a couple of large businesses addressing the challenges of intercepting the future. I’m thinking of updating the material and offering it as a half-day, open-enrollment session. It won’t be free, but the fee will be reasonable. Let me know what you think about my idea.

Cheers,

Bill