Reader, The last issue MindPrep Reflections dealt with the work of scanning the larger environment and I told you that I would address the need to build hypotheses (i.e., guess) in the next issue. However, I started thinking about what I was seeing in today’s business and political environments, and, for some strange reason, I started thinking about earthquakes. That lead me to think about the relationship between earthquakes and “IdeaQuakes.” Bear with me as I explain my thought process. Just as the Earth’s crust is made up of large, constantly moving tectonic plates, our business and political worlds are built on layers of ideas - assumptions, models, technologies, values, and social norms. (I’ll stick with the business world for the time being. Politics triggers anger for some of us.) An IdeaQuake is a sudden shift in core beliefs, paradigms, or technologies - like the advent of AI, the rise of remote work, or the collapse of trust in institutions. The result is a dramatic reshaping of markets, business models, or even society at large. And just as landscapes are forever changed by tectonic activity, so too is the business world transformed by these seismic shifts in thinking. Some examples from the past quarter century
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Just as geologists study seismic activity to predict and prepare for earthquakes, business leaders must track idea shifts to anticipate and withstand disruptive change. Next issueI’ll do as promised last time and provide a quick outline of the Guess Phase of intercepting the future. I hope you had a fun 4th of July break. I’ll be back with more brilliant observations soon. Cheers, Bill |
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader, Yesterday I’m a “leading edge” Boomer, so I remember my mom worried about this thing called “polio” in the 1950s. I remember pictures of children on crutches and people in iron lungs. I remember putting dimes in a cardboard slot and sending the contribution to The March of Dimes to fight the disease. I remember standing in line at school to get “the vaccine.” I remember when polio was declared to be eliminated in the United States. Today “Florida's position on vaccine policy under...
Reader Last week I reflected on the small study conducted by some MIT researchers and a disturbing finding. They asked 58 students to write an essay. Some could use ChatGPT to create an initial draft. Some could use Google-search for research. And some had to draw entirely on their own knowledge and reasoning. 83% of those who used ChatGPT to draft their work couldn’t recall a single sentence minutes later. The researchers referred to this as “AI-induced amnesia.” Four Questions Reflect on...
Reader (We are still unpacking from our move from Colorado to Illinois, so this is very short. I’ll comment on this in the next issue. In the meantime, ponder the impact of this technology on you and your family. It’s not going to go away.) “Writing is how we think our way into a subject and make it our own. Writing enables us to find out what we know—and what we don't know—about whatever we're trying to learn.” (William Zinsser, Writing to Learn, 1988) Zinsser’s book has been a companion for...