Reader, My beta readers for Navigating a Wicked World have given me plenty of solid feedback, so I’m busy with “the book.” This week’s Reflection is short and sweet (I hope). Many of you know that I use the example of a radar screen in my workshops and ask participants to consider what’s on the edge. Here are a few things that I’ve noticed this week and want to bring to your attention. Remember 2008? Mortgage and banking systems got in a lot of trouble due to their “financial engineering.”...
4 days ago • 1 min read
Reader, Here are a few stories from yesterday and today that may apply to tomorrow. Me and my slide rule After my “military sabbatical” in the mid-1960s I returned to the college campus to finish my education. I decided to study engineering and was on campus when TI, Casio, and HP introduced calculators. A big question at the time was “Is using a calculator rather than a slide rule a form of cheating?” Well, no. But yes. Regarding exams, it was simply a tool that made precisions calculations...
11 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, I was on a call Friday with a financial analyst, and we spent a bit of time wondering about the similarities of the 1929 Market Crash and the probability of a recession in 2026. Certainly, the specifics are different, but are there some similarities? Yes. That conversation got me thinking about bad and good surprises over the last 100 years that, just maybe, should not have been so surprising. Here are a few for your consideration. Stories of Surprises 1929 Market Crash: A LOT of...
25 days ago • 2 min read
Reader, Leaders must bring their organizations into the future, and that requires imagination. Why? Well, we have no data from the future, only from the past and the present. We have no choice but to imagine what the future will entail. When Jean and I were drafting The Prepared Mind of a Leader I thought we needed to look at respected science fiction writers and analyze how they “see” the future and build their mental models of what it will look like. Yes, imagination is needed, but we must...
about 1 month ago • 2 min read
Reader, In the early 1700s, the British government had accumulated massive war debt triggered by nearly continuous warfare in the late 17th and early 18th centuries. The South Sea Company proposed to assume large portions of that debt in exchange for government-backed interest payments and trading privileges. So, in 1720 the South Sea Company was granted a monopoly on trade with Spanish South America. Although the trade itself was politically constrained and commercially uncertain, the story...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Reader, In December 1952, London disappeared. London, 1952 A temperature inversion trapped coal smoke over the city and visibility dropped to feet. Smog wasn’t new and “dirty air” was so normal that people had adapted to it. London relied heavily on coal for a long time. They needed it for home heating, power generation, and industrial operations. And because of the cold, residents were burning more coal to stay warm However, the coal used was high in sulfur and when burned, it produced:...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Reader As you may (or may not) recall from the last Reflection, TJ was challenging an old guy (me) about writing today. After all, I’m full of “old information” and the world has changed a LOT. At the end of last week’s reflection, I commented on Ackoff’s concept of “formulating the mess.” Here are some notes on the application of his thinking to today’s world. I’ve mentioned the concept of system wickedness in several reflections so I’m not going to dig into that. However, although...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Reader, So, why should I write another book? TJ posed that question and not-so-subtly challenged me with “Sure, you’re kind of smart, but as an old dude your knowledge is out of date. After all, The Prepared Mind of a Leader was published twenty years ago.” 2006 The point of the 2006 book was to examine the skills leaders needed to be better prepared for a changing world. Is 2026 really that different from 2006? Maybe not, but I think leaders at all levels are being challenged in new ways....
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Reader, Here’s the draft introduction to a forthcoming book which is still untitled. Leadership When the World Will Not Sit Still Many leaders today have come to an unsettling realization: the word in which they are leading no longer behaves in ways for which their experience prepared them. Problems do not stay solved. Decisions trigger consequences far from where they were made. Actions intended to stabilize the organization often introduce new forms of instability. Stakeholders disagree not...
2 months ago • 3 min read
Reader, I had a nice conversation with my friend TJ this morning. We were talking about AI and how this technology is changing the world of work. TJ is both excited about AI and just a wee bit worried. Our conversation got us into a short exploration of “on the other hand.” Here are a few of TJ’s ponderings that I thought worth passing along. On the one hand, by using AI I can produce multiple explanations, not just the first plausible one. On the other hand, if I let it provide the “best”...
2 months ago • 1 min read