Reader

The last issue of MindPrep Reflections explored the concept of wicked world dragons and gave some examples of these dragons over the past 200 years. I ended that issue with a promise to look at the need to learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future when considering the dragons in your world.

Why?

• Learning from the past builds hindsight (wisdom from the past).
• Dealing with the present builds insight (clarity about the present).
• Intercepting the future requires foresight (imagination about the future).

Hindsight: Learning from the Past

Hindsight is the ability to extract meaning from experience. It’s not just about “what happened,” but “why it mattered.” You need to do this because similar dragons can return in new forms.

Before COVID-19, the world had to deal with smaller dragons: West Nile, Zika, SARS, MERS, Ebola. Signals were there in 2019, but they were ignored. Governments and global organizations didn’t learn. Hindsight - if practiced - could have saved lives and economies.

A Couple of Tools:

• After-Action Reviews (AARs): What worked, what didn’t work, what to do differently next time you face this dragon.
• Historical Analogies: Yesterday’s dragons often resemble today’s. Study old legends to face the threats.

Insight: Spotting Dragons

Insight is your radar. It’s how you sense smoke before the fire. Leaders with insight connect the dots others miss.

An unprecedented number of U.S. workers quit their jobs in 2021 and 2022, the first full two years of the COVID-19 pandemic - a phenomenon dubbed the Great Resignation.

The Great Resignation didn’t emerge overnight. Signals were rising: burnout, disengagement, value shifts. But too many leaders were too focused on spreadsheets to sense the dragon rising.

A Couple of Tools:

• Run regular SWOT Analyses to frame internal/external dynamics.
• Use Red Teaming exercises to challenge your own blind spots.

Don’t mistake information for insight. Create listening loops across customers, staff, and partners. Make room for challenging conversations. Insight is what prevents surprises.

Foresight: Preparing for Dragons

Foresight is not forecasting - it’s possibility scanning. It helps you imagine what problems might emerge and practice how you might respond.

Generative AI didn’t come out of nowhere. GPT-2 and GPT-3 early adopters were seen in education and medicine. The leaders who were watching then are now flying high; those who dismissed it are scrambling.

A couple of tools:

• Scan the edge of your mental radar screen using PESTLE to identify where new challenges are forming. (PESTLE = political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental.)
• Use scenario planning to explore a range of probable, plausible, and possible future.

Embed foresight into quarterly planning. Annual planning may be too late to intercept the challenges.

Blend All Three

Hindsight, insight, and foresight are powerful by themselves, but together, they create strategic agility.

• Hindsight without insight repeats mistakes.
• Insight without foresight leads to reactive solutions to challenges.
• Foresight without hindsight builds “castles in the clouds.”

The objective of using them together is to think across time.

Wicked systems are filled with uncertainty - but dragons are not unbeatable. You need to:

• Reflect on what was
• Make sense of what is
• Prepare for what could be

You don’t need a crystal ball. You need a compass. And hindsight, insight, and foresight are the cardinal points of your compass.

Finally

Enough of you have responded positively to my proposed open-enrollment session focused on “intercepting the future.” I’ll share the outline of the workshop in the next issue.

Cheers,

Bill