Reader,

I mentioned the dragon metaphor in the last issue of MindPrep. Why? Because they thrive in the wicked world in which we live and operate our businesses. This world is not just filled with puzzles, but also with complex challenges (good and bad) that morph as we try to resolve them.

These challenges defy simple solutions. They blur the line between cause and effect and resist conventional planning. It’s a world where supply chains crumble, customer habits shift, and technology moves faster than regulations or one-year plans can keep up.

And that’s where dragons come in.

Dragons are the forces of disruption that appear suddenly and threaten what we’ve built—economic shocks, technological leaps, cultural shifts, and ecological upheavals. Unlike tame problems, these disruptions don’t live in spreadsheets or play by simple rules. Like dragons, they fly at night. They breathe uncertainty. And they feed on delay and denial.

To navigate this world, you must first accept a new mindset - dragons are real.

Dragons in a wicked world

The metaphor of dragons fits with the challenges of business leadership and decision-making.

• Dragons are unpredictable and dangerous.
• Dragons pose threats you can’t train for.
• Dragons embody fear and uncertainty.
• Dragons can’t be slain with a simple sword.
• Dragons often guard treasure—but at a price.

Are dragons new?

No, they have been with businesses for centuries, but we forget. They just seem new.

19th Century Dragons

The Industrial Revolution (1800s–1870s) - mass mechanization and factory systems

Small workshops and artisan businesses struggled as large-scale manufacturing took over. Factory productivity soared, but so did population displacement and urban crowding as people migrated into the cities.

Railroad Expansion (1820s–1890s) - national market access

Businesses had to shift from local models to country-wide competitive pricing and distribution logistics. Small local retailers often couldn’t keep up.

The Telegraph (1840s–1870s) - instant communication across distance

Speed of information transmission revolutionized decision-making and required faster response from business leaders.

20th Century Dragons

Mass Production & the Assembly Line (Ford Model T, 1913) - standardization and speed over craftsmanship

This reshaped manufacturing, lowered costs, and wiped out many small-scale producers who couldn’t compete.

The Great Depression (1929–late 1930s) - economic collapse, mass unemployment, and deflation

Businesses had to survive deep demand shocks, credit scarcity, and shifts in consumer behavior.

Rise of Television & Mass Media (1950s, 60s) - national consumer attention spans and branding wars

Marketing became a high-stakes, big-budget game. Small businesses struggled to compete with national brands.

Globalization & Offshoring (1980s – present) - cheaper labor and competition from abroad

Manufacturing and jobs moved overseas; companies had to rethink pricing, quality, and innovation to stay competitive. Now we want to “onshore” but may be lacking the needed workforce.

The Digital Revolution (1980s–1990s) - rise of the PC, internet, and subsequent information overload

This shifted business models, communication, marketing, and productivity. Companies had to digitize or fall behind.

Dot-Com Boom and Bust (late 1990s–2001) - irrational tech exuberance and speculative markets

Businesses chased the digital gold rush without a viable business model. Many flamed out. Some survivors became dominant (e.g., Amazon).

Today's Dragons

Artificial Intelligence and Automation - machines that “think” and replace skilled labor

Entire job categories are being reshaped or eliminated. Business leaders must rethink operations, training, and ethical use of AI.

Global Pandemics (e.g., COVID-19) - sudden, system-wide shutdowns

This forced digital transformation, remote work, and exposed the fragility of supply chains and just-in-time models.

Cybersecurity Threats and Data Breaches - invisible but catastrophic digital risks

Even small businesses face threats to data integrity, customer trust, and business continuity.

Where to start?

Face it, dragons exist. Here are three starting points for dealing with them.

First, sharpen your foresight. Weak signals—emerging technologies, shifting behaviors, quiet anomalies—are early indicators of change. Learn to sense these whispers and imagine their potential trajectory.

Second, build a thinking culture that embraces complexity. In a wicked world, no single expert holds the answer. Diverse perspectives, open dialogue, and collaborative sensemaking are essential.

Third, practice scenario thinking. Since the future cannot be predicted, prepare for a range of plausible futures. Scenarios help us spot dragons sooner and respond with speed, not panic.

In the end, dealing with dragons in a wicked world isn’t about slaying them - it’s about understanding them, learning from them, and sometimes, even finding ways to ride them. Because in every disruption lies not just danger, but the possibility of transformation.

The world has changed. The maps are old. But the adventure begins anew.

Next MindPrep

My regular readers know that I’ve often used the mantra “learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future.” Let’s see if that applies to our emerging dragons.

Finally

As mentioned in the last issue I’m thinking of offering a half-day, open-enrollment session focused on “intercepting the future.” It won’t be free, but the fee will be reasonable. Let me know what you think about my idea. (Kay, thanks for the response. As for the rest of you – crickets?)

Cheers,

Bill