Reader

The last issue of MindPrep Reflections introduced the general framework for an upcoming workshop focused on “intercepting the future,” which is built around answering four fundamental questions. They are:

• What’s going on? >>> Scan the larger environment.
• Where is the future taking us? >>> Guess and build hypotheses.
• Can we intercept the future? >>> Decide on bets about the future.
• How are we doing? >>> Act and adapt.

Answering the first question requires that you actively scan the larger environment in which you operate. Here are some comments about doing that work. These comments reflect the approach we use in facilitating the workshop: Questions – Knowledge – Actions.

Q1: Scan the Larger Environment

The work associated with this is found in answering three types of questions: What questions need to be answered? What knowledge do I need? What actions should I take? Remember, questions are the engine of intellect.

Here are some examples of the three question types.

What questions need to be answered?

• What could help or hurt us and our business model? Tariffs: good or bad or both?
• What emerging trends are significant and irreversible? AI is here to stay, but it’s just starting.
• How fast is the industry changing? Care to get into the electric vehicle industry?
• Specifically, what is changing and is it dangerous? The loss of political compromise.

Think about all that you’ve read or heard about artificial intelligence (AI) in the past eighteen months. Could you answer the above questions when thinking about AI and your company, or career, or job?

What must you know?

• You should know that you have four futures
  • You have a known future (e.g., demographic shifts).
  • You have either/or futures (e.g., pending laws).
  • You have a hazy future (e.g., technology impact).
  • You have bolts-from-the blue in your future (e.g., Covid-19 implications).
• You should know common signals of trouble
  • Industry
  • Company
  • Career
• You should know the nature of trends affecting your industry.
  • Business model enhancing
  • Business model destroying

What should you do?

• You should listen to experts and learn to think for yourself. Don’t succumb to any of the following:
  • Search is replaced with political ideology, and we exclude anything that is not aligned with our beliefs.
  • Evidence is whatever you read on the first page of Google results or whatever your personal influencer tells you.
  • Goals are short-term and ignore the larger context.
  • Judgement is left to the “influencers” in your life. They tell you what to believe.
  • You ask a question of ChatGPT that is outside your field of expertise and believe what it says.
  • You focus on easy answers, not deep and difficult questions.
• You should spend time actively scanning your “mental radar screen.”
  • Reaction zone – deal with today’s challenges.
  • Adaptation zone – deal with significant trends.
  • Anticipation Zone – understand the clues on the horizon.
  • Imagination zone – engage the six-year-old hiding in the back of your brain.

Next issue

I’ll provide a quick outline of the Guess Phase of intercepting the future.

By the way, we are headed back to Illinois to visit family. The next issue may be a bit delayed.

Cheers,

Bill