Reader ,

This is long (about a thousand words) so get a cup of coffee or a glass of wine.

Part 1 of 2

Many of you know that I’ve been writing about wicked worlds for a while and that my “summer project” is to write a follow-on to the 2006 book The Prepared Mind of a Leader. But while researching and thinking about wicked worlds I kept coming across two other acronyms, VUCA and BANI. Since all three might apply to my quest to explain and find tools for today’s mess I did a bit of investigating.

Following is a quick overview of the three concepts and how they differ and overlap. Next week I’ll provide a bit “now what” and some tools for you to consider as you consider today’s challenges.

Wicked

The history of wicked systems thinking arises from the convergence of several intellectual streams across systems theory, planning, and leadership strategy, particularly in response to environments where traditional problem-solving fails. These are “wicked” environments in contrast to “kind.”

“Kind environments” reward experience and have predictable rules (e.g., chess). Wicked environments, by contrast, lack clear rules, offer poor feedback, and demand experimentation and interdisciplinary thinking (e.g., water in the west).

• The term “wicked problems” was first used in 1973 to describe societal planning issues such as housing and poverty that defied traditional linear problem-solving. Wicked problems are ill-defined, have no definitive solutions, and involve many stakeholders with conflicting values.
• The fusion of wicked problem theory with systems thinking in the early 2000s led to the framing of "wicked systems" - environments that are unpredictable, feedback-poor, non-linear, and evolving rapidly. The 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate change are examples.

Wicked systems thinking demands interdisciplinary collaboration, iterative learning, and a willingness to abandon expert intuition when past experience no longer applies. It’s not just about solving problems but navigating ecosystems where the very nature of the problem is in flux.

VUCA

The term VUCA - short for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous - originated in the U.S. military during the late 1980s and early 1990s, specifically in response to the end of the Cold War. With the fall of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the bipolar world order, U.S. military planners realized they were entering a new, unstable era where threats were less predictable and traditional strategies were inadequate.

The U.S.Army War College coined the term VUCA to describe the new global security environment—one where clear enemies, alliances, and boundaries had blurred.

In the early 2000s, business leaders and strategists began using VUCA to describe similar challenges in the corporate world - especially following events like:

• The 9/11 attacks
• The 2008 global financial crisis

Each of the four words highlights a different challenge for decision-makers:

Volatile – The nature and speed of change are unpredictable.

• AI driven business disruptions

Uncertain – There is a lack of clarity about the present and the future.

• Election-year geopolitics and energy markets

Complex – There are many variables and interconnected parts.

• Semiconductor supply chains and geopolitical risk

Ambiguous – Situations lack clear meaning or interpretation.

• Regulation of generative AI and digital identity

BANI

By the 2020s, some futurists (like those at the Institute for the Future) began arguing that VUCA didn’t go far enough in capturing the psychological and systemic turbulence of the modern world—hence the rise of BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, and Incomprehensible).

Describing today’s world as BANI highlights a shift in how we understand volatility and complexity beyond the limitations of the older VUCA model. While VUCA captured the post-Cold War military and corporate landscape, BANI reflects a deeper fragility and unpredictability felt in 21st-century systems. However, describing a BANI world involves several nuanced issues:

Following are a few examples of how BANI applies to today’s world.

Brittle – Systems that appear stable but fail suddenly

• Covid-19 and recent hurricanes showed us how fragile our supply chains are. We had willingly sacrificed reliability upon the altar of efficiency and low cost.

Anxious – A reactive, high-stress environment driven by fear or overload

• Rapid automation in white-collar jobs (e.g., accounting, copywriting) has sparked layoffs and psychological stress among mid-career professionals who feel unprepared to learn new skills.

Nonlinear – Disproportionate or delayed effects

• Is the Republican Party still one party? Is MAGA a new party under the old umbrella?

Incomprehensible – Events defy logic, patterns, or explanation

• AI-generated videos, voices, and text have become so prevalent that distinguishing truth from fiction becomes nearly impossible - even for experts -causing public distrust in all media.

Wicked + VUCA + BANI = “Oh MY!”

Each framework - Wicked, VUCA, and BANI - offers a different lens on the same reality. And when you examine the overlap among Wicked Worlds, VUCA, and BANI, a powerful and urgent message emerges: The world is no longer merely difficult – it’s fundamentally unstable, unknowable, and personal.

Implications for leaders and decision makers

Here are three realities:

Linear thinking is obsolete. None of these frameworks support the notion that you can define a problem clearly, solve it once, and be done. Cause-effect is scrambled. Organizational silos MUST work together.

Strategy must be adaptive, not predictive. Wicked worlds, VUCA, and BANI all warn us to stop trying to control the uncontrollable. We must scan for signals, place bets, learn, and revise often.

Emotions and cognition are inseparable.​
BANI highlights that leaders must now manage psychological overload - not just ambiguity. It’s not just about solving problems; it’s about holding your team together. Emotional Intelligence is a must-have.

My conclusion? We need to accept the Stockdale Paradox: “Plan like a pessimist, dream like an optimist.” And that, my friends, just might need a rewired mind.

You’re in the middle – either give up or prepare for the adventure of your lifetime

Next week: Wicked? VUCA? BANI? All three? (Part 2)

Face the brutal fact that we live in a wicked/VUCA/BANI world. Are you going to give up? Of course not.

What are you going to do to survive and succeed? Rewire your thinking and face the dragons of a wicked world!

I have some of the tools, tips, and techniques from the forthcoming book that I’ll share in Part 2.

Until next week,

Bill