Reader,

Yesterday

I’m a “leading edge” Boomer, so I remember my mom worried about this thing called “polio” in the 1950s. I remember pictures of children on crutches and people in iron lungs. I remember putting dimes in a cardboard slot and sending the contribution to The March of Dimes to fight the disease. I remember standing in line at school to get “the vaccine.” I remember when polio was declared to be eliminated in the United States.

Today

“Florida's position on vaccine policy under Governor DeSantis and Surgeon General Ladapo is increasingly skeptical and anti-mandate, exemplified by calls to end all vaccine mandates for schoolchildren …..” (Google summary of recent events in Florida)

Tomorrow?

One of my favorite tools to use when thinking about the future is a technique call the “Futures Wheel.”
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Jerome C. Glenn is credited with inventing the Futures Wheel in 1971. He was working as a futurist and foresight practitioner and later became Executive Director of the Millennium Project, a global futures think tank.
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He wanted an understandable but structured way to visualize the ripple effects of change—to move beyond straight-line forecasting and force people to consider second- and third-order consequences.
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So, what did I do? Since I didn’t have time to convene with a group of good thinkers, I went to my intern, ChatGPT. Here’s my trigger statement and Chat’s response.

Trigger: “Give me a sample futures wheel for the reduction/elimination of standard childhood vaccines.”

Chat’s Response:

First-Order Consequences (direct, immediate effects)
1. Increase in preventable childhood diseases (measles, polio, whooping cough).
2. Healthcare costs rise due to more outbreaks.
3. Schools face health crises (closures, absenteeism).
4. Public trust divides further (pro-vaccine vs. anti-vaccine camps).
5. Higher child mortality rates in vulnerable populations.
6. International travel restrictions (other countries demand proof of vaccination).
​Second-Order Consequences (ripple effects)
7. Strain on healthcare system → fewer resources for other illnesses.
8. Increased demand for alternative/black-market vaccines.
9. Economic productivity declines (more sick children, more parents leaving work).
10. Insurance premiums rise for families and businesses.
11. Legal battles escalate (lawsuits against governments/schools).
12. Educational inequality grows (wealthy families may access private protection, others can’t).
​Third-Order Consequences (long-term, systemic effects)
13. Loss of herd immunity → previously eliminated diseases resurge globally.
14. Tourism/trade impacted → countries restrict movement from high-disease areas.
15. Social polarization deepens → “public health” becomes a wedge political issue.
16. Biotech firms accelerate new vaccine tech (nasal sprays, gene therapies, implants).
17. Potential for authoritarian measures → governments impose quarantines or override personal freedoms.
18. Generational trust breakdown in science, public health, and institutions.

My conclusion

The list of consequences is reasonable. Although some of the listed consequences are “a bit of a stretch,” none of the consequences is impossible.
DeSantis and Ladapo may have reasons for their position, but I don’t think they are considering the future. And that’s where my grandson will be living – the future.

Announcement

I am part of a small group of thinkers who will be launching The Prepared Mind Project in the fall.
Stay tuned – we are going to build a community of people who want to learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future. And, as with the Futures Wheel, it will focus on tools and techniques that we can use.

Cheers,

Bill