Reader,

Did Sears Roebuck intercept the future of retailing? Did Tesla intercept the future of the automobile? Who is in the process of intercepting the future of “intelligence?’

For too many organizations the question of “Can we intercept the future of our industry?” is a work in progress.

This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “Where is the future taking us?” This issue continues the examination of the Driving Questions. Here’s the proverbial roadmap.

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Answering and acting upon this question lies at the heart of not being taken by surprise. You need to analyze the competing hypotheses from the previous step and take a closer look at stakeholder needs and wants.

The key is to make decisions today that will positively affect future conditions. These decisions might be as simple as setting a “trip wire” for action in the future or as high-risk as making changes today that will take months or years to play-out.

This work will result in a decision plan that will document needed decisions and their associated timing and relative risk.

Some knowledge you should possess

Industries are unique beyond the offerings they provide. Look at your industry and consider the challenge of intercepting the future along three dimensions: predictability, malleability, and harshness.

• Predictability refers to the ability to forecast direction and size.
• Is your industry malleable? Can you, either alone or in collaboration with others, shape it?
• How harsh is your industry and can you survive its changes?

Decision traps such as anchoring, confirmation bias, and sunk cost affect all of us, including you. You should know that biases that affect your ability to make decisions with “futurity” in mind.

Some questions you should ask

• What success criteria should I use?
• What risks am I willing to take?
• What is out of my control?
• What should I change? What can I change?
• What are the consequences of planned changes?
• What are the consequences of not changing?
• What trip-wire metrics will I use to trigger needed future changes?

Some actions you should take

• Assess the risks of planned changes.
  • Consequences of decisions
  • Impact / likelihood matrix – watch the yellow zone
• Assess the quality of the pending decisions.
• Determine metrics to be used as trip wires.
• Back-cast anticipated future success.
• Prepare a failure pre-mortem.

Some results

As with the previous driving questions, the work associated with answering this question will take time. However, along the way you will build clarity and understanding about:

• Decision plan with risks and timing
• Consequence map
• Needed trip wire criteria

Next issue of MindPrep

The next issue will address the driving question of “How are we doing?”

Until then, may I continue to remind you that I need to interview you and gain your insights about foresight. Let me know if you’re interested and available. I’d love to include you as a “thought partner” in our forthcoming book and workshop.

Thanks,

Bill