Reader, Did Sears Roebuck intercept the future of retailing? Did Tesla intercept the future of the automobile? Who is in the process of intercepting the future of “intelligence?’ For too many organizations the question of “Can we intercept the future of our industry?” is a work in progress. This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “Where is the future taking us?” This issue continues the examination of the Driving Questions. Here’s the proverbial roadmap. Answering and acting upon this question lies at the heart of not being taken by surprise. You need to analyze the competing hypotheses from the previous step and take a closer look at stakeholder needs and wants. The key is to make decisions today that will positively affect future conditions. These decisions might be as simple as setting a “trip wire” for action in the future or as high-risk as making changes today that will take months or years to play-out. This work will result in a decision plan that will document needed decisions and their associated timing and relative risk. Some knowledge you should possessIndustries are unique beyond the offerings they provide. Look at your industry and consider the challenge of intercepting the future along three dimensions: predictability, malleability, and harshness.
Decision traps such as anchoring, confirmation bias, and sunk cost affect all of us, including you. You should know that biases that affect your ability to make decisions with “futurity” in mind. Some questions you should ask
Some actions you should take
Some resultsAs with the previous driving questions, the work associated with answering this question will take time. However, along the way you will build clarity and understanding about:
Next issue of MindPrepThe next issue will address the driving question of “How are we doing?” Until then, may I continue to remind you that I need to interview you and gain your insights about foresight. Let me know if you’re interested and available. I’d love to include you as a “thought partner” in our forthcoming book and workshop. Thanks, Bill |
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader The last issue of MindPrep ended with three realities: Linear thinking is obsolete. None of these frameworks support the notion that you can define a problem clearly, solve it once, and be done. Cause - effect relationships are scrambled. Strategy must be adaptive, not predictive. Wicked worlds, VUCA, and BANI all warn us to stop trying to control the uncontrollable. We must scan for signals, place bets, learn, and revise often. Emotions and cognition are inseparable. BANI highlights...
Reader , This is long (about a thousand words) so get a cup of coffee or a glass of wine. Part 1 of 2 Many of you know that I’ve been writing about wicked worlds for a while and that my “summer project” is to write a follow-on to the 2006 book The Prepared Mind of a Leader. But while researching and thinking about wicked worlds I kept coming across two other acronyms, VUCA and BANI. Since all three might apply to my quest to explain and find tools for today’s mess I did a bit of...
Reader, I’ve been investigating and writing about a special level of complexity – wickedness – for about a year. As I’ve said before, wickedness, in this context, doesn’t imply evil—it means unpredictability, interconnectedness, and the absence of clear cause-and-effect relationships. In a wicked world: The “rules of the game” are ambiguous, temporary, or contested. (Will today’s best practices regarding AI work next year?) Feedback loops are broken or delayed. (What will shipping fees be...