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Bill @ MindPrep

MindPrep 289 – Where is the future taking us?

Published 22 days ago • 1 min read

Reader,

This issue of MindPrep continues our examination of the work associated with building and using foresight for our businesses and our careers. The last issue addressed the question of “What’s going on.” This issue continues the examination of the Driving Questions. Here’s the proverbial roadmap.

Knowledge you should possess

  • The basic structure of a business model
  • Models that can be used to organize the analysis of the future clues (e.g., PESTLE analysis).
  • Hypotheses about alternative futures
    • Continuity
    • Low disruption
    • High disruption
    • Abrupt changes
  • Your assumptions
  • Stakeholder points of view regarding the future

Questions you should ask

  • What are the impacts of trends and outside changes on our business model?
  • What could hurt us?
  • Are our assumptions still valid?
  • Are we succumbing to strategic inertia?
  • Knowing what we know, what are our: Probable, plausible, and possible futures if we don’t change?
  • What could we change (now? later?) to avoid being hurt?
  • What will our culture allow us to change?

Actions you should take

  • Think like someone else (e.g., DeBono’s six thinking hats).
  • Separate knowledge from assumptions.
  • Assess the potential impact of trends and changes on our business model.
    • What is increasing?
    • What is decreasing?
    • What has been eliminated?
    • What’s new?
  • Document three hypothetical business models.
    • Probable: existing trends continue.
    • Plausible: new trends may take hold.
    • Possible: events and new trends “break the mold.”
  • Build multiple scenarios of the future.

Results

As with Scanning, this work will take time. However, along the way you will build clarity and understanding about:

  • Probable / plausible / possible scenarios
  • Hypothetical business models
  • Strategic watch list

Next issue of MindPrep

We will examine the work associated with answering the question “Can we intercept the future?”

Until then, may I continue to remind you that I need to interview you and learn your insights. Let me know if you’re interested and available.

Cheers,

Bill

Bill @ MindPrep

Bill Welter

Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.

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