Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
MindPrep 284 – Technological déjà vu?
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Reader I’m old enough to remember the dot-com bubble of 1999 – 2000 and the excitement of counting webpage-views (aka, “eyeballs”) while ignoring profitability. And now I’m living in the era of AI, cryptocurrency, and electric vehicles. Is this time different? Dot-Com Bubble (late 1990s): The internet was a groundbreaking technology that promised to revolutionize communication, commerce, and society. Valuations skyrocketed as investors raced to get a piece of the "internet gold rush." We saw a new bookstore (amazon.com) and a short-lived pet supply retailer (pets.com). Today’s Tech Boom (2020s): AI is hailed as the "new electricity," crypto promises decentralized financial systems, and EVs are seen as the solution to climate change. All are positioned as world-changing technologies. In both eras, there’s an overarching belief that new technology will make traditional businesses and business metrics obsolete. What can we learn from 1999 that might apply to today?There are striking similarities between the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the current excitement surrounding AI, cryptocurrency, and electric vehicles (EVs). While these technologies hold transformative potential, many of the same patterns of speculation, hype, and market exuberance are emerging. SpeculationDot-Com Era: Companies with no profits (e.g., Pets.com) raised millions in IPOs based on user growth and “potential future profits.” Today:
HypeDot-Com Era: Media celebrated tech entrepreneurs as rock stars. Stories of overnight millionaires fueled retail investor fear of missing out. Today: Influential figures like Elon Musk (Tesla) and Sam Altman (OpenAI) are honored as visionaries. Social media amplifies the hype cycle. Market exuberanceDot-Com Era: Loose monetary policies and investor optimism made capital cheap and accessible for startups. Today: Recent years of low-interest rates and venture capital enthusiasm have funneled massive amounts of capital into tech startups, crypto projects, and EV manufacturers. Boom and bust?Dot-Com Bubble Outcome: The dot-com crash wiped out countless startups, but survivors like Amazon and eBay emerged stronger and reshaped global commerce. Today’s Tech Boom: Many AI, crypto, and EV startups are likely to fail, but the strongest players (e.g., OpenAI, Bitcoin, Tesla) may dominate their industries post-shakeout. Lessons from the Dot-Com Bubble for Today’s Market
TodayThe technologies will endure, but many of today’s overvalued players will likely vanish in a correction. Also, China was not a “player” in 1999. The challenge lies in identifying the Amazon-equivalents of this era and avoiding the Pets.com equivalents. That’s all for now. Ken and I are discussing a series of half-day workshops for 2025. More information soon. Cheers, Bill |
Bill @ MindPrep
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
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