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Reader Every decision you make today is a bet about the future. Sometimes the future is near and sometimes the future is far. Sometimes our decisions produce that results we want; and sometimes they don’t. It’s always “the present” when you decide, but every decision plays out in the future. If you want to make better decisions in the “here and now” you should do two things: 1. (Re)confirm your assumptions underlying the decision. 2. Think about the unintended consequences of the decision, not just what you want to happen. Sometimes the unintended consequences are good, sometimes not-so-good. Question: Regarding a pending decision, what assumptions must be true for you to succeed? And, what could go wrong? Happy New Year, Bill |
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader, In the early 1700s, the British government had accumulated massive war debt triggered by nearly continuous warfare in the late 17th and early 18th centuries. The South Sea Company proposed to assume large portions of that debt in exchange for government-backed interest payments and trading privileges. So, in 1720 the South Sea Company was granted a monopoly on trade with Spanish South America. Although the trade itself was politically constrained and commercially uncertain, the story...
Reader, In December 1952, London disappeared. London, 1952 A temperature inversion trapped coal smoke over the city and visibility dropped to feet. Smog wasn’t new and “dirty air” was so normal that people had adapted to it. London relied heavily on coal for a long time. They needed it for home heating, power generation, and industrial operations. And because of the cold, residents were burning more coal to stay warm However, the coal used was high in sulfur and when burned, it produced:...
Reader As you may (or may not) recall from the last Reflection, TJ was challenging an old guy (me) about writing today. After all, I’m full of “old information” and the world has changed a LOT. At the end of last week’s reflection, I commented on Ackoff’s concept of “formulating the mess.” Here are some notes on the application of his thinking to today’s world. I’ve mentioned the concept of system wickedness in several reflections so I’m not going to dig into that. However, although...