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Reader Every decision you make today is a bet about the future. Sometimes the future is near and sometimes the future is far. Sometimes our decisions produce that results we want; and sometimes they don’t. It’s always “the present” when you decide, but every decision plays out in the future. If you want to make better decisions in the “here and now” you should do two things: 1. (Re)confirm your assumptions underlying the decision. 2. Think about the unintended consequences of the decision, not just what you want to happen. Sometimes the unintended consequences are good, sometimes not-so-good. Question: Regarding a pending decision, what assumptions must be true for you to succeed? And, what could go wrong? Happy New Year, Bill |
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader, Tesla Motors was founded in 2003 and for years it was the undisputed symbol of the electric vehicle revolution. It made EVs desirable, technologically exciting, and commercially viable. It was more than a car company; it was a market-maker. It changed consumer expectations, pushed legacy automakers into motion, and created enormous shareholder wealth (especially for Musk). But leadership in one era does not guarantee ongoing dominance. Today, Chinese EV manufacturers such as BYD and...
Reader, What does a Nobel Prize–winning physicist and a very controversial entrepreneur have to do with you as you plan for your future or for the future of your organization? More than you might think. Richard Feynman and Elon Musk operated in very different domains, but they shared a common discipline: first principles thinking. They didn’t start with what is commonly believed. They started with what must be true. Feynman reduced complex problems to the underlying laws of physics. Musk...
Reader, “We” started a war, gas prices are rising, home sales are stagnant, AI-fear is rampant with new college graduates, immigration has all but stopped, farmers are hurting, and on, and on. And the stock market keeps rising. What’s going on? Let's think about the past, the present, and the future. The Past: We’ve Seen This Movie Before In the late 1990s, investors poured money into internet companies with little more than a name and a promise. Profits didn’t matter. Cash flow didn’t...