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Reader Every decision you make today is a bet about the future. Sometimes the future is near and sometimes the future is far. Sometimes our decisions produce that results we want; and sometimes they don’t. It’s always “the present” when you decide, but every decision plays out in the future. If you want to make better decisions in the “here and now” you should do two things: 1. (Re)confirm your assumptions underlying the decision. 2. Think about the unintended consequences of the decision, not just what you want to happen. Sometimes the unintended consequences are good, sometimes not-so-good. Question: Regarding a pending decision, what assumptions must be true for you to succeed? And, what could go wrong? Happy New Year, Bill |
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader, Here’s the draft introduction to a forthcoming book which is still untitled. Leadership When the World Will Not Sit Still Many leaders today have come to an unsettling realization: the word in which they are leading no longer behaves in ways for which their experience prepared them. Problems do not stay solved. Decisions trigger consequences far from where they were made. Actions intended to stabilize the organization often introduce new forms of instability. Stakeholders disagree not...
Reader, I had a nice conversation with my friend TJ this morning. We were talking about AI and how this technology is changing the world of work. TJ is both excited about AI and just a wee bit worried. Our conversation got us into a short exploration of “on the other hand.” Here are a few of TJ’s ponderings that I thought worth passing along. On the one hand, by using AI I can produce multiple explanations, not just the first plausible one. On the other hand, if I let it provide the “best”...
Reader, Judgment is the human capacity to make sound decisions when rules are incomplete, data is ambiguous, trade-offs are real, and consequences unfold over time. Judgement is not synonymous with intelligence, expertise, or analytics. Judgement is an integrative act. It combines: Contextual understanding (We are part of a larger system.) Interpretation of weak signals (We imagine “what if” scenarios.) Moral and ethical reasoning (Yes, truth and morality still count!) Experience-based...