Reader,

In 2019 I created a short email minicourse built around the need for us to “learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future.” And it’s now 2026. What’s changed about dealing with the present?

Of the three challenges, dealing with the present may sound easiest. It is not.

The present arrives as a crowded mix of customer demands, cost pressures, new technologies, workforce concerns, competitive moves, and decisions that cannot wait. Artificial intelligence accelerates the flow. Leaders have more data, more analytical power, and more possible actions. But they may not necessarily have more clarity.

The central difficulty is time compression. Today is “faster” than it was in 2019.

Signals appear, decisions accelerate, and consequences spread before formal planning cycles catch up. Leaders are increasingly accountable for outcomes they cannot control through authority alone.

In 2019, I described present-day challenges as problems or opportunities. That remains useful, but it is no longer sufficient. In 2026, a leader must first ask what kind of situation is taking shape. Is it complicated, with an answer that expertise can uncover? Is it complex, requiring experimentation and learning? Or is it wicked, embedded in a larger system, interpreted differently by stakeholders, and changed by every attempt to address it?

Misdiagnosis is costly. Treat a wicked challenge like a routine problem and you may implement an efficient answer to the wrong question.

Dealing with the present begins by pausing long enough to make sense of it. Four questions deserve attention:

1. What is really going on? Look beyond the presenting symptom. Examine customers, competitors, technology, workflows, incentives, relationships, and the broader system.
2. What matters most now? Not everything urgent is equally consequential. Identify the gap that must be addressed, the time available, and the cost of acting or failing to act.
3. Who sees the situation differently? Stakeholders bring different facts, fears, values, and definitions of success. Their differences are part of the challenge, not noise to be eliminated.
4. What can we try and learn from? When cause and effect are uncertain, avoid betting everything on one grand solution. Build an option portfolio. Include immediate actions, safe-to-learn experiments, and longer-term moves. Make assumptions explicit and identify evidence that would cause you to change course.

Then act. The purpose of sensemaking is not endless analysis; it is better judgment in the moment. Decide who owns the next move, what resources and capacity are required, what indicators will be watched, and when the team will pause to reflect.

This is where the Sense–Response Cycle becomes practical: Sense. Make Sense. Commit. Act and Adapt. The cycle reminds us that action is not the end of thinking. Every move produces feedback, reveals consequences, and changes the situation. Leaders must observe again, challenge their assumptions, learn quickly, and adapt to ever-new circumstances.

Dealing with the present does not mean putting out today’s fires while postponing tomorrow. It means keeping the organization functioning while discovering what the situation now requires.

The prepared leader does not ask only, “What is the solution?” The better question is: “What is happening now, what response is reasonable, and what must we be ready to learn next?”

Next week I’ll revisit my 2019 views on intercepting the future.

By the way, grab a copy of Navigating the Wicked World. It just might help you deal with the present.

Cheers,

Bill