Reader,

I’ve been writing about wicked worlds and wicked problems for a couple of years (although the concepts are much older than my writing). I’ve also been facilitating strategic thinking workshops for over 20 years and one of the topics I include is a discussion of unintended consequences.

And, in case you haven’t noticed, Iran and Strait of Hormuz have been the news lately.

So I went to my hard-working intern, Chat GPT, and asked it to comment on the wickedness of the situation.

Here is part of the response from my intern.

CHAT:

• Energy becomes entangled with war: An oil problem is simultaneously a military, diplomatic, economic, transportation and political problem.
• Local events create global cascades: An attack near Iran can affect diesel prices in Europe, manufacturing costs in Asia, airline costs in the U.S., and inflation almost everywhere.
• Cause and effect become separated: A decision in Tehran or Washington today may produce supply-chain and inflation effects thousands of miles away months later.
• Actions change the problem: Military escorts, sanctions, strategic-reserve releases or strikes may alleviate one problem while creating another.
• Stakeholders want incompatible outcomes: Iran, Gulf producers, the U.S., Israel, China, India, insurers, shipowners and energy consumers have very different definitions of an acceptable solution.
• Risk becomes behavioral: The Strait doesn't have to be physically sealed. If shipowners and insurers judge passage too dangerous, commerce stops anyway.
• Second-order effects multiply: Energy → shipping → chemicals → fertilizer → food → inflation → interest rates → growth → political instability.
• There is no obvious “stopping rule”: Even a ceasefire or reopening would not immediately restore insurance, shipping patterns, inventories, energy prices or political trust.

Back to Bill:

I agree with my intern. The Iran "thing" is a classic example of a wicked problem. And wicked problems cannot be "solved."

I wrote Navigating the Wicked World because I know that today’s environment is a lot different than the one I used to know so well.

That is why “navigate” becomes a better leadership verb than “manage.” You cannot manage Hormuz. You can only sense its signals, make sense of the evolving consequences, decide under uncertainty, and act and, most importantly, adapt.

Misters Trump, Hegseth, and Netanyahu are intelligent, but I don’t think they thought wide enough or deep enough or hard enough.

School starts soon and in addition to walking Will to school a couple of days a week I’ll be wondering about his future and how he’ll navigate it.

Cheers,

Bill