Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
MindPrep Reflection: Edge of the Radar Screen
|
Reader, My beta readers for Navigating a Wicked World have given me plenty of solid feedback, so I’m busy with “the book.” This week’s Reflection is short and sweet (I hope). Many of you know that I use the example of a radar screen in my workshops and ask participants to consider what’s on the edge. Here are a few things that I’ve noticed this week and want to bring to your attention. Remember 2008?Mortgage and banking systems got in a lot of trouble due to their “financial engineering.” So, the government put some pretty strict guardrails around them. Well a bunch of people don’t like guardrails and now we have the private credit market, and it’s HUGE. This entails non-bank lending provided directly by private investors to companies outside of traditional public debt markets (like bonds) and outside of bank balance sheets. Smart, but certainly not risk free. Watch it. It seems to be having a “bit of trouble.” The Strait of HormuzWe are told not to worry abut gas prices because “we’re a net exporter.” Maybe so, but the market is global and, as you know, prices are on the rise. But wait! There’s more! 36% of helium went through the strait. And helium is used both for microprocessors and, to a lesser degree, data centers. Watch for problems. A LOT of urea fertilizer went through the strait. Farmers are already suffering and we will see lower crop yields, farm bankruptcies, and higher food prices. Old diseases on the riseTuberculosis and Hi-b (haemophilus influenza type-b) are reappearing in the U.S. Both of these can kill but have been controlled with vaccines. Unfortunately, the “anti-vaxxers” are influencing the population, and, the vaccine rate for both diseases is dropping. Data centersData centers are at the heart of the AI euphoria and lots of rich people want to get in on the game. However, data center efficiency depends on three things: electricity, water, and helium. Electricity? Pay attention to the aging grid in much of the U.S. Water? Fresh water is a very fragile “commodity.” Areas across the U.S., not just in the west, are experiencing problems. Helium? Not essential but it’s used for efficiency. Costs will increase without it. What’s on your radar screen? Drop me a line. See you next week. Bill |
Bill @ MindPrep
Four careers over 50+ years. USMC, engineering, consulting, education. Past twenty years have focused on helping leaders become and remain relevant during times of change.
Reader, Here are a few stories from yesterday and today that may apply to tomorrow. Me and my slide rule After my “military sabbatical” in the mid-1960s I returned to the college campus to finish my education. I decided to study engineering and was on campus when TI, Casio, and HP introduced calculators. A big question at the time was “Is using a calculator rather than a slide rule a form of cheating?” Well, no. But yes. Regarding exams, it was simply a tool that made precisions calculations...
Reader, I was on a call Friday with a financial analyst, and we spent a bit of time wondering about the similarities of the 1929 Market Crash and the probability of a recession in 2026. Certainly, the specifics are different, but are there some similarities? Yes. That conversation got me thinking about bad and good surprises over the last 100 years that, just maybe, should not have been so surprising. Here are a few for your consideration. Stories of Surprises 1929 Market Crash: A LOT of...
Reader, Leaders must bring their organizations into the future, and that requires imagination. Why? Well, we have no data from the future, only from the past and the present. We have no choice but to imagine what the future will entail. When Jean and I were drafting The Prepared Mind of a Leader I thought we needed to look at respected science fiction writers and analyze how they “see” the future and build their mental models of what it will look like. Yes, imagination is needed, but we must...