Reader,

In 2006, Jeanie Egmon and I wrote The Prepared Mind of a Leader to help leaders develop thinking skills needed to thrive in a world of creative destruction. Back then, we described the challenge of “creative destruction” and a future shaped by unpredictable change. Now that future is here—and it's even more unpredictable than we imagined.

Your experience might help—or it might hold you back.

The End of Predictability

Kind environments—where experience and expertise lead to mastery—are disappearing.

We’re not just dealing with change. We’re confronting disruptions that are continuous and multidimensional:

• AI that redefines core job functions. Do you see AI as a competitor or as a partner?
• Climate shocks that disrupt supply chains. What industries will suffer from the 2025 hurricane season?
• Economic shifts that squeeze customer demand. Will Trump keep, eliminate, or increase tariffs?
• Political instability that reshapes global operations. Will Congress work together for America or keep fighting the other party?

The rules have changed. And the old maps? Outdated.

Rewiring the Sense-Response Cycle™

We created the Sense-Response Cycle™ as a tool to help leaders:

• Sense early signals
• Make sense through reflection and perspective
• Decide with intention
• Act in alignment with goals

It still works—but in wicked environments, it must move faster and include more diverse inputs.

• Sensing is too passive. We must actively scan the horizon for clues.
• Making sense is being replaced with guessing (i.e., building multiple hypotheses) because we are “less sure.”
• Deciding in this environment is more like placing bets on the future.
• Acting is needed, but adapting to ongoing change is essential.

Flip the Failure Modes

One of my favorite books, Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War, examines three underlying reasons for military failures.

• A failure to learn
• A failure to anticipate
• A failure to adapt

Flip them and consider your organization.

• Become a learning organization. (Remember the learning organization movement from the early 1990s? Its time has come – again.)
• Improve your anticipation skills. You are going to be surprised, but you should not be taken by surprise.
• Constantly adapt. Follow Michael Porter’s advice to “do things differently or do different things.”

So, What Should You Do?

To start, ask and answer these questions:

• Are we solving the real problem—or just treating symptoms?
• Have we truly mapped all stakeholders and their evolving needs?
• What does success look like in 6 months? In 18? (Forget the 3-year plan. The world is moving too fast.)
• Are we ready to test new ideas and learn quickly?

Leading in wicked systems means:

• Letting go of certainty
• Building real-time intelligence
• Embracing ongoing experimentation
• Reflecting often—and honestly

Louis Pasteur admonished to remember that “chance favors the prepared mind.” Leadership today isn't about predicting the future - it's about intercepting it.

Cheers,
​ Bill