Reader,

One of the problems of developing a mental model of the future is that our expertise gets in the way. Consider the story of Arthur C. Clarke, one of the most respected authors of science fiction who started writing stories about the future in the 1950s.

Let’s take a look at one of his earliest books, The Sands of Mars, which was published in 1951. The story was about a reporter’s trip to the “Red Planet.”

Clarke’s description of the atomic engines that powered the spacecraft made sense inasmuch as atomic power was then a reality and scientists and engineers were speculating as to how it might be used. Likeswise, even though no one had been in space, his descriptions of weightless space travel and dealing with the vacuum of space were well imagined.

And he clearly understood the need for minimizing weight in the rocket to conserve fuel. And that’s where his expertise as a writer got in the way.

Clarke describes a scene in which the main character, the reporter, needed to document his experience of space flight. In preparation for writing his report, our fictional reporter pulled out his lightweight typewriter and a pack of ultralight carbon paper that he would use for a copy after he sent the original report back to earth in a miniature rocket.

You see, Clarke was a writer and he just “knew” that a good typewriter was an essential tool and that a good portable was clearly state-of-the-art technology. Although calculating machines (early computers) had been used during WWII to calculate artillery and naval gun trajectories, they used numbers, not words, and he missed a clue about the future. Email was not considered.

His inability to invent a new means of preparing a report was hampered by his inability to see beyond something he knew so well. A typewriter was permanently etched in his mental model.

What about us?

As you construct your vision of your future, the model should include the probability of surprise. Furthermore, you need to look actively for things that would affect your mental model. And a good bet is that you will find that some of your assumptions are fragile.

Consider three assumption-types.

· Assumptions about the environment in which you and your organization function. Is China a vast marketplace for U.S. companies or is it a fierce competitor? Earlier assumptions about China only copying “the west” have been blown out of the water in the electric vehicle and artificial intelligence fields.

· Assumptions about the mission of the organization. When will you stop harping on the need for “shareholder value” and recognize that our organizations are worthless without a talented workforce? Treat them as such.

· Assumptions about the capabilities and competencies that will be needed. We’ve spent the past two years worrying about people being replaced by AI bots and robots. When will you focus on using these tools to reach the future before your competition?

Care to learn from the past?

As many of you know, I’ve been writing about the need to “learn from the past, deal with the present, and intercept the future.” And, as luck would have it, I found some of my notes from about ten years ago wherein I examined some lessons from the past and considered the causes of the future.

If you’d like some interesting history lessons, you can grab Ten from Then which has ten short history snippets and some comments about “what causes the future.” The link is HERE.

Cheers,

Bill

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